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Where Expectations Meets Frustration
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U.S. medical schools have trained an average of 15,500 physicians a year since
1980, according to the Department of Health and Human Services. In a June 2006
report the Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC) called for a 30
percent increase in accredited medical school enrollment by 2015.
The AAMC also recommended eliminating the current Medicare restriction on the
number of funded residency positions so that graduate medical education
programs can accommodate more graduates of accredited U.S. medical schools.
Meanwhile, the population continues to grow. U.S. Census data indicate a
population increase of close to 24 percent between July 1, 1988 and July 1,
2008, from approximately 244.5 million people in 1988 to more than 300 million
people in 2008.
In an October 2006 report entitled “Physician Supply and Demand: Projections to 2020,” the U.S. Health Resources and Services Administration projected a shortfall of
55,100 physicians in 2020, primarily among non-primary-care specialties. A year
earlier the Council of Graduate Medical Education had released a report
predicting a shortage of roughly 85,000 physicians by 2020, caused in part by
our aging U.S. population.
According to the June 2007 issue of Managed Care magazine, “The American Academy of Family Physicians last year recommended that to meet the
need for primary care physicians in 2020, the United States would have to train
3,725 family physicians and 714 osteopathic physicians annually, with an
overall goal of a 39 percent increase in family physicians. The American
College of Physicians, which represents internists, supports the call for
training more doctors but has not issued specific recommendations for
increasing the number of internists.”
MORE QUESTIONS THAN ANSWERS
Juxtaposed with these figures, our research results raise some interesting
questions about the future of medical practice. Will the healthcare policies of
the new administration exacerbate an already noticeable shortage of physicians
across the nation? What incentive will there be for future generations to pursue medical degrees? And what’s going to encourage those legally qualified to practice medicine to pursue
patient care?
In what Wall Street Journal “Health” blogger Jacob Goldstein called a “zeitgeist,” a July 21 New York Times story chronicles how a Richmond, Virginia
nephrologist, Arnold Kim, MD, this month quit practicing medicine to focus on
his MacRumors blog full-time. The hobby he picked up eight years ago while
getting his $200,000 medical education reportedly now attracts 4.4 million
visitors and 40 million page views per month. While Kim says each occupation
earns him a six-figure income, he gets to work from home and enjoy time with
his 14-month-old daughter as a blogger.
Clearly, Marcus Welby, MD has left the building.
UO
A founding partner of Georgia-based LocumTenens.com, Pamela McKemie has worked
in physician recruitment for more than 15 years.
